<< Dallas TX, JAN 18 2024 >> We here at TDM are generally pro defense spending and are firmly committed to American Military superiority over any possible foes. Occasionally however, we find a defense program that we think is an expensive waste. One such system is the new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) called the Sentinel. Let us explain why. We agree that the current Minuteman III ICBM is very old and facing massive obsolescence issues. You can only rebuild something so many times, and the Minuteman is approaching that point. So a new land based ICBM is a priority. We don’t have a problem with the Sentinel missile itself. But we a have a MAJOR problem with its basing mode. The decision to base the Sentinel in existing fixed Minuteman silos is one of the stupidest decisions by the Pentagon in decades. These silos are in fixed, known locations. In the pre 1970’s these fixed hardened silos would protect a Minuteman because the precision of a nuclear weapon was relatively poor. Accuracy was say a half mile or a 1500 feet or so. So a hardened silo had some chance of surviving a first strike. Fast forward 50 years and accuracy is a few tens of meters. No silo, no matter how hardened, can survive a 100 kiloton nuclear detonation a hundred meters away. Historically the Soviets used big bombs to compensate for their poor accuracy. Today, the Russians still have these old big bombs, but with more accurate guidance systems. These new Sentinels in old silos are sitting ducks. Why does this matter. These fixed based Sentinels are destabilizing .They are “first strike” bait . An enemy may be tempted to launch a preemptive strike to take out our land based missiles early in a crises. The US in turn, to avoid a “use it or lose it” situation may be tempted to launch early before the incoming nuclear warheads arrive. This is called a “launch on warning” policy. This VERY dangerous as early warning systems are quite imperfect an can give false alarms. This is the kind of stuff Armageddon movies are made of. So here at TDM, we believe a fixed base Sentinel is strategically destabilizing. We also believe the Sentinel should have been made mobile (at least a large percentage of them). A mix of mobile and static silos would put enough doubt in the minds of an attacker to complicate a first strike. Therefor reducing its chances of success. This mobility could be either rail or truck based. We understand that mobile missiles have their own issues. One being force protection and keeping these freeway traveling nuclear weapons secure. But this can be dealt with. Whats to be Done ? So this train has already left the station. The Sentinel will be here soon and it will go into fixed silos. At this point the only way to make the Sentinel able to survive a first strike is protect it with an Anti Ballistic Missile System (ABM). This ABM system would be a point defense system ONLY to protect the missile fields. ABM systems are complex and a tall technical challenge. But it is MUCH easier to build a effective point defense system compared to a regional one. It would be easier to defend a small area of say North Dakota, than say the west coast of the United States. The US has currently deployed a powerful wide area ABM system in California and Alaska. This system may be overkill for a point defense like we propose. A better alternative may something like the Aegis Ashore system with modified SM-3 missiles. The SM-3 is capable of exo atmospheric kills. It probably could not do area defense, but it MIGHT be able to do point defense.The Aegis Ashore system could also deploythe SM-6 missile to protect the Sentinels from cruise missile attack. Though this is less likely. No ABM system is perfect, and one could simply overwhelm the defense system. But it would massively complicate an attackers battle calculus, reducing the chances of a first strike being attempted. In conclusion, we either make Sentinel mobile, protect the Sentinel with an ABM system, or get rid of land based ICBMs completely. The strategic triad would be dead, with only our bomber and sea based missile forces remaining.